Author Topic: Investments  (Read 7922 times)

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Offline wodgina

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Investments
« on: February 05, 2009, 04:08:53 pm »
How much worse is the current financial crisis going to get? and is anyone looking to hopefully make a buck out of it? It's looking pretty bad in the US and UK. Is this temporary readjustment?

I've been insulated so far with a secure job and interest rate drops but my over inflated house price has lost 20% eeek! i'm thinking gold.

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Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Investments - How can we get our share of the TRILLIONS in bailout money?
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2009, 04:42:52 pm »
I had something else in mind though:

How can we get our share of the TRILLIONS in bailout money?

Now that we have heard about these outrageous billions being created out of thin air to the banksters...

What I would like to know are ideas how we can get our hands on the money.

It has to trickle down right?
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Offline wodgina

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Re: Investments
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2009, 05:16:53 pm »
hell yeah its ridiculous! Some how i dont see me getting a slice.
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Offline TylerDurden

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Re: Investments
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2009, 06:56:33 pm »
What they should have done is let the banks collapse, write off the debt(as what happens with any other bankrupt company) and then have the givernment temporarily take over the actual assets of the banks which would still be intact(as opposed to the shares) and lend money to the public until new banks could get started up etc to take over the lending.
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Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Investments
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2009, 08:48:47 pm »
Some Filipino friends in the USA have invested some of their money in the Philippine stock market.  I'm not suggesting you invest in our stock market.  The only reason they can do this is they know our Philippine stock market better than the USA stock market.
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Offline Guittarman03

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Re: Investments
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2009, 03:42:18 am »
My best guess is there's alot of restructuring going on in the way of global governance.  Consolidation of assets and centralization of power.  I think in the next 5-10 years (if that) we could very well see the emergence of a North American Union - they already tried to build a NAFTA superhwy in my home state of TX.  Years ago (02-05) I used to drive between Corpus and Houston on hwy 59, and i would see signs every 40 miles or so saying "Future Corridor 69."  I could never figure out why they called it a 'corridor' and not an interstate.  Later (06') I start reading about this "crazy conspiracy" to build a NAFTA superhwy, and realized that's what those signs were referring to.  Luckily Texans put a stop to that crap just as soon as we found out about it.

Since that time I'm much more apt to give credence to the idea that much planning is done centrally by incredibly wealthy internationalists, who most of the time you've never heard of.  One of their principle instruments is control of the monetary system.  Money is created from nothing and loaned at interest.  And EVERY dollar that is in circulation was originally loaned w/ interest.  So then where does the $$ to pay the interest come from?  Well you have to print more money which is then loaned at interest.... and on it goes.  This can be sustained if you do it concurrence with the increase in REAL wealth (roads, homes, power plants, computers, etc) but not if you let it get out of hand.  Its inevitable consequence is debt, and inevitably, many institutions MUST fail, while only the most powerful and wealthy can remain afloat.  And that's where America is at now.  We've maxed out our credit, and we produce very little in the way of REAL wealth... but they're still busy borrowing $$ and then printing it when no one will lend to us.  It's forcing a complete restructuring of assets and power - namely a consolidation of both in powerful hands.   They hide behind a labyrinth of complicated economic schemes, but the basics of what's happening as actually quite simple.

If your interested in the nuts and bolts of this ponzi scheme, just mill around on google/youtube looking for "fiat currency", "honest money", etc, and check out mises.org.

As far as investments, having actual possesion of gold and silver bullion is a pretty safe bet (not just buying on the heavily manipulated nymex).  If you can no kidding outright purchase (not loan) a home and/or some land in a rural environment - its probably best to avoid major cities, you would be doing well.  There's another round of foreclosures just about to start again this spring.  It will have the effect of depressing housing prices, esp in major cities, and forcing more financial institutions into insolvency - which of course will have a direct effect on the markets.  Investing in oil (no need to keep barrels around the house) is also a solid bet.  That might not be the case for much longer as oil can't drop much more (it has also been manipulated downward), but at worst you will just keep the value of your investment, whereas if you keep it in a mattress, you will lose b/c we are already in a highly inflationary period (where each dollar is worth less and less), and if we dont' change course, it's only going to get worse in the next year or so.

I'm still kind of waiting to see what the Obama administration actually does.  I've got hope for good change, but he has stacked his admin w/ alot of the old schoolers that helped pave the way for this whole economic mess, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.  Good luck to any investors out there... your gonna need it.
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Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: Investments
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 08:02:36 am »
I'm going to either buy a house soon or just put my money into gold and wait out the high inflation.

Clearly though land is the best thing to invest in, it is the basis for all wealth. The only other possible resource would be ideas, everything else comes from land somewhere.

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Investments
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2009, 08:23:34 am »
Andrew Gause the resource guy at www.oneradionetwork.com says you need to invest in gold numismatic coins whose value is certain. Real gold coins in your physical possession.

He warns about investing in gold certificates as the industry is rife in over selling certificates and not enough actual physical gold stock.
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Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2009, 10:17:26 am »
I went through the last crisis and I did buy some gold (including investement grade gold coins) as a hedge, but not much thankfully.  The problem was that when the market actually turned gold dropped like a rock from $800 to under $200.  If I had put much in that supposedly "super safe" investment I'd have lost my shirt.

Today I have a good bit of money in life insurance policies that I purchased for about 25 cents on the dollar.  This type of investment is called Life Settlements.  I purchase a $250,000 policy from someone who is 80 years old for about $70,000 and then I get the full $250,000 when the policy pays out.  Insurance companies must maintain about 50 cents in cash assets for every dollar they manage.  Banks on the other hand, only have to have about 10 cents on the dollar.  So far I've never heard of a life insurance policy that didn't pay off.  Both my father and grandfather were in the life insurance business so I'm fairly comfortable with this investment.

Gold was a disaster in the 70's so I'm real gun shy of that one.

Lex

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: Investments
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2009, 10:49:49 am »
Even physical gold values can be manipulated by "powers that be" forces, which Lex shows. I believe when it last tanked the price was artificially dropped to bankrupt some countries that were investing heavily in gold that the central banking system didn't like. Any change in the value of gold would have to be artificial be definition because the supply is constant. Unless everyone decided they needed gold teeth and jewelry, or conversely that no one wanted it anymore.

Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2009, 02:08:59 pm »
As I remember is was more like the dot com bubble and the recent run up in oil prices.  Speculators were bidding the price up using the faltering economy as an excuse, (sound familiar?), and there came a point when it was obvious that the emperor had no clothes, precious metals were way over priced, and the house of cards collapsed.

The current situation has a very similar feel to it.  All the politicians are playing Chicken Little and yelling the sky is falling when it is their very actions causing most of the turmoil. 

Lex 

 

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Investments
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2009, 02:23:28 pm »
That life insurance settlement investment sounds awesome!
It seemed so easy and so profitable now that you mention it.
Do you have to be an insurance salesman to find prospects like that?
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Offline TylerDurden

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Re: Investments
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 10:13:53 pm »
Gold was a disaster in the 70's so I'm real gun shy of that one.

Lex

I hate to contradict but gold actually rose in value by almost 10 times its value in the 1970s. Here's the proof:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

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Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2009, 12:14:57 am »
I hate to contradict but gold actually rose in value by almost 10 times its value in the 1970s. Here's the proof:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

No contradiction Tyler.  Many like me got gold fever in 1979-80 and bought it between $500 and $800 an ounce only to see it fall within months into the $200s.  We lost lots of money - real money - not paper loses or lines on a chart.  My investment account was almost wiped out.  It took me many years to recover.  Luckily I actually owned real gold so my losses were limited to the reduce value of the physical gold I owned and my overall loss was in the range of 70%.  Others that owned gold futures contracts weren't so lucky.  They were highly leveraged and I know many that lost everything including their homes.

I had 'investment grade' coins that lost even larger percentages.  One coin in particular I purchased at $1200 and at the time it looked like a fantastic investment.  One year later the same coin was selling for $150.  Again, this is real loss.  My coin investments lost about 85% of their value in six to eight months.  Some still haven't returned to their original purchase price and if you factor in inflation, I still have a significant loss.

If you consider inflation, and what a dollar was worth in 1979/1980 and what it is worth today, my losses were and still are horrendous.

Lex

Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2009, 12:24:55 am »
That life insurance settlement investment sounds awesome!
It seemed so easy and so profitable now that you mention it.
Do you have to be an insurance salesman to find prospects like that?

There are several companies that specialize in Life Settlements and Viaticals.  Some manage investment into specific policies while others pool policies into a fund and then you invest in the fund.

Pacific West Capitol Group in Los Angeles is one company that allows you to invest in specific policies.

American Pegasus in San Francisco has a "Perpetual Income Fund" that is centered around pooling Life Settlements.

These are just two that I have personal knowledge and experience with.  There are many others.

Lex 

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: Investments
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2009, 03:05:35 am »
When you lose money on gold it's only temporary is one thing to consider. So you buy it at $500, it goes down to $300 an ounce, so what it will go back and get higher eventually. You only lose money if you sell it low. With currency though you will always be losing due to inflation. This is also true of currency based investments like stocks, bonds and life insurance. You have to factor in that every year the American dollar loses several percent of it's value into what you're making with it. If inflation is at, for example, 7% (which it could be higher than that soon with all the money printing going on) and you're investments makes 6%, you're losing 1% of your money for no reason.

Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 09:05:36 am »
When you lose money on gold it's only temporary is one thing to consider. So you buy it at $500, it goes down to $300 an ounce, so what it will go back and get higher eventually. [\quote]

I guess the issue is how long this will take.  I bought a good bit of gold at over $500 in 79/80.  It didn't return to that level until 2006.  That's 26 years.  If you add in the cost of inflation and the opportunity cost of the market rise in the 80's and 90's, I will never recover this money.  $500 invested at just 6% for 26 years would turn into  $2,200, and the market returned far more than 6% over this period.  I had over 100 ounces so that's a total loss of well over a quarter million in gains when compared to just putting my money in bank CD's or Government bonds, not to mention $35,000 in direct loss of the original $50,000 investment.

I don't consider that holding an asset for over 25 years with zero gain either a good investment or hedge against inflation.  I think I'll put my money in pemmican.  At least I won't go hungry if times get really tough.  ;)

Lex 

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: Investments
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2009, 03:20:31 am »
You can definitely buy gold at the wrong time. What if you bought it at $150 an ounce sometime in the 60's and sold it at >$1000 an ounce a few months ago? If I had put my money into gold last Summer instead of a bank CD with 4% interest I would have made >10,000 in a couple of weeks when the price went up 34$ a day and then similarly for a little while. Timing is an issue.

I believe you're right that the stock market has out performed any other investment strategy (other than property probably) but it's all about timing. If you just bought a ton of stocks a year ago you could, in 20 years, say that it took you that long to recover that money too, just like I can say I could have made $5,000 in a day if I had done what I wanted to at one point and put all my money in gold.

Now that I'm really thinking about it, the best investment is to start your own business and build real wealth. I don't want to be part of the money making money culture. You could try selling your pemmican, I'd certainly buy some  ;D

Offline Guittarman03

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Re: Investments
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2009, 04:53:33 am »
Unfortunately you can lose big even while buying tangible assets, and Kyle is right that timing can be a big issue.  Lex is right that you have to be careful about getting caught up in the buying frenzy, otherwise you can be hit pretty hard.

There is big money to be made in the markets, derivatives and futures trading etc, but the truth is a lot of that is based on the ever expanding credit system.  In other words, they can be so immediately profitable that tangible assets can pale in comparison.  However, the problem is that much of those investments derive their profits on the debt dollar, and much of that profit does not represent real growth in wealth; just the effect and 'trickle down' effects of the creation of lots more dollars.  In other words, you gotta make sure that you're on the top of the pyramid of people that will see those newly created dollars - the bottom feeders just eat it.  Of course, when these guys fail (and remember, many of them must fail when debt dollar creation, speculation, and highly leveraged betting gets out of hand), they fall hard and they take down alot of others with them.  That's why it's 'safer' to buy tangible assets however... 

If you had bought 'tangible' oil just 8 months ago, you would have lost big.  Speculators often drive the prices way up.  Sounds like Lex had a bad beat back in the 70's when he did the equivalent of buying a highly over-speculated asset.

If you are looking to save for yor future, one of the safest and surest ways to preserve the value of your hard earned work (represented by money), then you just can't beat something that has inherent value:  land, commodities, and precious metals.  Gold and silver are inherently important not only as desirable items to wear, but for a wide range of industrial applications, and as something that every agrees and has agreed for a long time are worth having.  There are many more precious metals and commodities other than gold/silver.  Land will always have value, as inherently it is all we have.  All work, all mining, all development, everything must be done on land. 

However, and it's importance cannot be overstated, speculators often come in and place/base a wide range of speculative bets on these assets, and the speculation begins to take on a life of its own apart from the real value of those assests.  When this happens it seems there's just a huge amount of $$ to be made in this speculation, and if you get caught buying overvalued assets you can lose big. 

So the moral of the story is this:  You can make alot of money on speculation - way more than the potential to make by just 'saving,' but also have the potential to lose everything.  If on the other hand, you accumulate real assets outside of the window of artificially created bubbles - some people might call them ponzi schemes - then you are truly saving for you future, and it is a saving that will always retain its value, regardless of the debt based monetary system. 

ps. that's an intersting strategy Lex with the insurance thing. 
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Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2009, 09:04:28 am »
You can definitely buy gold at the wrong time. What if you bought it at $150 an ounce sometime in the 60's and sold it at >$1000 an ounce a few months ago? If I had put my money into gold last Summer instead of a bank CD with 4% interest I would have made >10,000 in a couple of weeks when the price went up 34$ a day and then similarly for a little while. Timing is an issue.

Yup, it's all so simple.  Just a matter of timing. All I need to know is what will happen tomorrow. Lots of ways to predict that.  Lets see I could use Elliot Waves, Candle Sticks, Head and Shoulder formations, moving averages, double bottoms, triple tops, channel breakouts, Fibanocci Numbers, consensus reports, or a host of other tried and true methods.   Or better yet, where did I put that crystal ball......

Lex

Offline lex_rooker

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Re: Investments
« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2009, 03:04:39 pm »
Kyle,
I just did the math on the $150 investment in gold in the 1960's selling for $1000 45 years later.  The effective compounded annual return is 4.3%.  Really poor considering that the stockmarket had tripple that return over the same period and real estate had a little over double.  Taking inflation into account you would have lost buying power.  Looking at the historical pay for a technician where I worked, their wage increased an average of 5.28% per year over the same period.

Gold and other precious metals just don't seem to be good long term investments.  I suppose you could make a killing in short term speculation if you have the stomach for it.  I, for one, prefer to sleep at night.

Lex


Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: Investments
« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2009, 01:38:43 am »
Well the short answer I have is that you're right. Still, I think it's not a difficult decision to buy gold if it were to in the recent future drop around $500 an ounce and hold onto it for a few years. Right now metals are relatively high and it's not a particularly good time to buy them, but at the same time inflation is worrying me because I konw it's going to increase in the near future. What I'm hoping to do is to put money in the stock market when it bottoms out, which will of course be a judgment call but I see a big fake money explosion coming soon so it will probably start rising consistently in a half a year, and then leave it in there for a few years and take advantage of the next fall in gold prices. It's so disgusting that you have to plan where you save your money to protect yourself against theft by inflation and other ridiculous practices.

Offline TylerDurden

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Re: Investments
« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2009, 06:41:23 am »
Well, iI wish I'd been able to put money into gold in c.1970 and cashed it in c.1978/1979. I would have made an absolute killing.
"During the last campaign I knew what was happening. You know, they mocked me for my foreign policy and they laughed at my monetary policy. No more. No more.
" Ron Paul.

 

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